Can AI spot patterns in successful innovator's careers?
A Mayo Clinic Case Study
“Where do I find the most promising innovations in a geography?”
“Which of the hundreds of young researchers in a domain are most likely to invent the next big cure?”
“How do I spot the most promising new concepts in immunomodulatory therapeutics?
“Which new sub-fields of genetic medicine are the most ripe for innovation?
Historically, innovation searchers - our shorthand for the VCs, TTOs, and scouts whose job it is to source innovation - have relied on a combination of three strategies to answer these questions: 1) read the literature, 2) walk the halls, or 3) phone a friend.
In late 2022, we teased a 4th approach, a recipe that combines new insights from AI and metascience, to answer these quantitatively and at scale. Around that recipe we built Stargaze™, a hybrid-AI toolkit for sourcing, mapping, and predicting innovation with unprecendented depth and richness.
Over the last year, our team at Portal Innovations has applied Stargaze to a variety of challenges with great success. We identified early innovators for Portal to invest in; we partnered with a top-5 pharma to identify emerging technologies and trends; we developed a portfolio of “innovation biomarkers” that help surface early innovators; and we created an atlas of researchers most likely to generate breakthrough inventions. We’re excited by what we’re finding and want to share some of our learnings with the wider world.
This post is the first of a series where we share some of what we have been working on, explore some of the insights we have drawn, and invite our friends to come along for the ride. Thanks for reading!
How Mayo Clinic Resurrected Exact Sciences
In 2008, Exact Sciences, a cancer detection company based on a discovery out of Case Western in OH, was on the rocks and nearly out of runway. In June 2009, they cleared the deck, hired a new management team, and “re-founded” the company on a technology developed in another midwest lab: David Ahlquist’s lab at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN. Within a matter of years, Exact Science’s big bet turned a near-failure into a thriving name brand and a franchise of new “molecular diagnostics” with the potential to save millions of lives.
What is the story behind this “overnight” turnaround? Using Portal Stargaze, our team of innovation astronomers mapped 100 years of innovation history at Mayo Clinic to see if we could answer three questions:
Why exactly did Exact Science’s bet on David Ahlquist pay off?
Can we discover any trends or patterns in Ahlquists career - any “innovation biomarkers” - that can explain his success?
If so, can we use these same innovation biomarkers to find other researchers who are ripe for innovation and investment?
Mapping 100 Years of Innovation at Mayo Clinic
We begin by finding all of the papers, grants, patents, and startups associated with current Mayo Clinic researchers, and tying them into a biotech hypergraph. Next we use Stargaze to extract “their coordinates” and plot them with a temporal vector space model (TVSM) - a many-dimensional representation, or map, of the history of innovation at Mayo Clinic. (interactive version, here.)
As with any map, we take in the big picture first. What is its overall topography? Do any topic clusters appear? How do they change over time? Several things pop out right away, one of which is the structure of cancer research at Mayo. What in the 1970s was a rather distinct, self contained cluster of innovation became, over time, a convergence discipline, whose lines blur more and more with others - especially the fields of immunology and molecular diagnostics.
As we zoom in further, Mayo Clinic’s distinct flavor of oncology research comes into sharp focus - a Mayo-specific convergence of clinical oncology, genetics, molecular diagnostics, and immunology. It is at precisely this nexus that Exact Sciences was reborn.
Finally, zooming in one further step, we highlight only David Ahlquist’s research. Then, with our TVSM as a guide, we identify four change points, distinct points-in-time with a clear, quantitative before and after. Like the divisions between acts in a five-act play, these change points mark major developments in his innovation story, and act as sign posts as we try to determine his commercial readiness.
Visualizing a scientific career in five acts
Act 1: Setting Anchor (1975 to 1985)
Working with his mentor, David Ahlquist explores the potential of hemoglobin assays in the stool, joins the Mayo Clinic faculty, sets up his lab, secures his first major grant and publishes his first seminal paper on the “HemoQuant Test”.
Act 2: Zeroing in (1985-1999)
Ahlquist comes into his own, building on the tools of his mentor but developing his own unique interests, hypotheses, and scientific voice. But like in the best of plays, this act is punctuated by frustration, as his approach fails to pan out and he concludes that it is nonviable.
Act 3: Exploring New Avenues (1999 - 2008)
Ahlquist faces his setback head-on, exploring collaborations and research avenues, while remaining laser focused on colorectal cancer detection. One trail leads him into imaging and CT scanning. Another trail leads him into genetics and molecular assays. This second trail pans out, and everything comes to a climax in 2008, when Mayo Clinic strikes a career-defining deal with Exact Sciences.
Act 4: Doubling Down (2008 to 2014)
For six years, Ahlquist throws all of his energy into commercializing his discovery. His grant activity disappears. All of his work is concentrated tightly around this one goal, which eventually becomes Exact Sciences category defining product, Cologuard.
Act 5: Exploiting his Discoveries (2014 to 2020)
With Cologuard successfully commercialized and adopted by the American Cancer Society, Ahlquist broadens his aperture once again, seeking to exploit and expand on his breakthroughs. When he passes away in 2020, he leaves behind a legacy.
A Timeline View (1975 to 2020)
Finding Future RisingStars
Like great plays, great scientific careers are all different. But they tend to follow similar patterns. Might the patterns in Ahlquist’s career, made visible by Portal Stargaze, make it possible to find other researchers like him, before their big moment? There are a few reasons we are optimistic:
When plotted with Stargaze, Ahlquist’s first grant, in 1985, predicts the exact location where his seminal patents will appear, 30 years later. For what current, high potential researchers might this also hold true? We can use this insight to see where the puck is headed, and invest our time and money accordingly.
Stargaze identifies clear break points in Ahlquist’s career (1985, 1999, 2008, and 2014 ) which mark the distinct “acts” in his innovation cycle. These acts show us when he exploring, when he is doubling down, and when his innovations are ripe for commercialization. This pattern can help us identify other innovators who are ready to commercialize vs. those who are promising, but whose time hasn’t yet come.
Stargaze analyses of other geographies (e.g. Chicago, the Southeast) and topics (e.g. gene delivery, immuno-modulation) have shown that our innovation biomarkers repeatably surfaces under-the-radar superstars.
These same innovation biomarkers can be used to identify emerging technologies and ecosystems in addition to individuals. What are the big innovation themes in the Southeast, and how do I catalyze them? Which nontraditional geographies are emerging hotbeds, and how do I unlock them? Where is the puck headed in, e.g., immunotherapy, and how do I invest accordingly? Needless to say, these are the exact questions we are asking (and answering at) Portal Innovations. We’ll have much more to say about them in future posts.
A 7-step Stargaze recipe for finding future innovators like David Ahlquist, before their big moment.
Quantify & visualize the innovation landscape of interest.
Zero in on clusters that exhibit promising Innovation Biomarkers.
Use innovation markers to identify specific researchers likely to generate a breakthrough.
Find the breakpoints in those researcher’s careers.
Zoom in on those within the ”translational phase” of their innovation cycle.
Engage / Invest.
Repeat.
Interested in using Stargaze to scout for innovation? Our innovation astronomers work with corporations, investors, and startups. Email me to learn more: steven.lehmann@portalinnovations.com